WHAT: Yankees should win the most games in baseball in 2005 and take their division. The Mets should win 10 more games than they did last year, but they’ll still take fourth place in their division.
WHO: These predictions come by way of Bruce Bukiet, Ph.D., an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) who has an expertise in mathematical modeling. Bukiet has issued his annual predictions for the Major League Baseball 2005 season.
DIVISION WINNERS: Bukiet predicts that the Yankees, the Twins, and the Angels will top the American League (AL), while the Phillies should finally dethrone the Braves in the National League (NL) East. With Barry Bonds possibly out for the season, the Giants, who formerly were predicted to dethrone the Dodgers in the NL West, now drop to third place. The Padres should win their division while the Dodgers should be the NL wildcard. The Cardinals should repeat as winners of the NL Central Division. The Yankees should take the American League East with 113 wins; the Twins should take the Central Division with 90 wins; and the Angels should take the Western Division with 89 wins.
In the National League, says Bukiet, the Phillies will take the Eastern Division with 90 wins; the Cardinals will take the Central Division with 102 wins; and the Giants should take the Western Division with 99 wins. The Cardinals and Twins are most likely to win their divisions, the Cards by 14 games over the Cubs, while the Twins should finish 11 games ahead of the White Sox. The closest races should be in the AL West, with the Angels finishing 4 games ahead of the A's, and in the AL East the Yankees should be 6 games better than the world champion Red Sox. The wild cards should go to the Padres in the NL while the Red Sox repeat as the AL wild card team. For the full standings see Bukiet’s web page: http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/
WHERE: Bukiet is available weekdays for interviews in his office at 518 Cullimore Hall or by phone: (973) 596-8392. His email address is firstname.lastname@example.org.
HOW: Bukiet’s model gives a game-by-game probability of each team winning, taking into account each team’s schedule and prospective roster and lineup. The average for each team’s pitching performance is applied, although during the season daily win probabilities will be posted on his website: http://www.egrandslam.com.
BACKGROUND: Bukiet has discussed his baseball model on CNN Headline News. He’s been interviewed by CBC radio and his work has been featured in the Jerusalem Post, the National Post (Canada) the Sunday Times of South Africa, the New Scientist and other publications. Although based entirely on mathematical modeling, Bukiet’s predictions have compared favorably against the predictions of journalistic experts.