"There is no dominant team in this year's baseball playoffs, at least in the first round," said Bruce Bukiet, associate professor of mathematical sciences at NJIT concerning the Major League Baseball Division series.
According to Bukiet's mathematical model, the Cubs have a 62 percent chance of advancing to the National League Championship Series, while the Red Sox have a 60 percent chance of advancing to the American League Championship Series. The Phillies have a 57 percent chance of advancing in the National League, while the Indians have a 52 percent chance of defeating the Yankees.
Bukiet's model computes the probability of a team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage winning a game against another team. Bukiet's mathematical model, which was published in the journal Operations Research, computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. The model takes into account the season’s performance of the position players and pitchers.
Bukiet, an avid Mets fan who said he is still mourning his heroes’ historic collapse, noted that anything can happen, especially in such short series as these best three out of five contests. “Winning the first game can change a team's fortunes markedly. For example, if the Yankees win the first game against the Indians, their chance of winning the series jumps to 69 percent,” he said.
He also warns not to be disappointed if he predicted that your favorite team is likely to be eliminated. Bukiet noted that in 2006, none of the four teams favored by his model advanced to the League Championship Series. “And those teams weren’t as evenly matched as the 2007 contenders,” he said.
This is the seventh year that Bukiet has used his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day during the baseball season. His picks (posted on www.egrandslam.com) have led to (slightly) positive results for five of the six past years, while the results are marginally negative so far this season. Regular updates on the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series will be posted at m.njit.edu/~bukiet.
Bukiet’s research concerns the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena. Current interests include biomedical applications of mathematics, including stresses in the heart and modeling the dynamics of flow in the human lung. He also works in the application of mathematical modeling for sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball. His publications include "Mechanical Properties of Diseased Hearts in Adaptation," Journal of Mechanics in Medicine and Biology, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Apr. 2002). Bukiet recently received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.
For more details, contact Bukiet 973-596-8392 or firstname.lastname@example.org feature daily updates on the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series. Such postings have led to positive results for five of the past six years.