David Rothschild, an economist with Microsoft Research New York City, will speak about coming transformations in market intelligence in the presentation, “Eliciting and Aggregating Information from Laypeople: Polling, Prediction Games, and Social Media Data,” on April 24 from 5:00 - 6:00 p.m. in the Campus Center Ballroom B.
For over 75 years, survey research has been relatively static. There is a standard procedure: ask a random sample from a representative group of users or a focus group what they would do, and then report the results. Rothschild will demonstrate how survey research can be more efficient in creating both a snapshot of the present and a forecast of the future, with new data found online and from social media, new questions for polling and prediction games, and accompanying aggregation methodology that utilizes more cost-effective, non-representative samples.
Rothschild’s primary body of work is on forecasting and analyzing public interest and sentiment. Related work examines how the public absorbs information. After joining Microsoft in 2012, he has been building prediction and sentiment models and organizing novel/experimental polling and prediction games. This work has appeared on both Bing and Xbox. He correctly predicted 50 of 51 Electoral College outcomes in February of 2012, and 21 of 24 Oscars in 2014. Rothschild has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.